Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies

"Technological innovations are key causal agents of surprise and disruption. In the recent past, the United States military has encountered unexpected challenges in the battlefield due in part to the adversary's incorporation of technologies not traditionally associated with weaponry. Recognizing the need to broaden the scope of current technology forecasting efforts, the Office of the Director, Defense Research and Engineering (DDR & E) and the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) tasked the Committee for Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies with providing guidance and insight on how to build a persistent forecasting system to predict, analyze, and reduce the impact of the most dramatically disruptive technologies. The first of two reports, this volume analyzes existing forecasting methods and processes. It then outlines the necessary characteristics of a comprehensive forecasting system that integrates data from diverse sources to identify potentially game-changing technological innovations and facilitates informed decision making by policymakers. The committee's goal was to help the reader understand current forecasting methodologies, the nature of disruptive technologies and the characteristics of a persistent forecasting system for disruptive technology. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies is a useful text for the Department of Defense, Homeland Security, the Intelligence community and other defense agencies across the nation."--Publisher's description FrontMatter......Page 2 Preface......Page 8 Acknowledgment of Reviewers......Page 9 Contents......Page 10 Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 14 Glossary......Page 16 Summary......Page 18 1 Need for Persistent Long-Term Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies......Page 25 2 Existing Technology Forecasting Methodologies......Page 34 3 The Nature of Disruptive Technologies......Page 50 4 Reducing Forecasting Ignorance and Bias......Page 65 5 Ideal Attributes of a Disruptive Technology Forecasting System......Page 74 6 Evaluating Existing Persistent Forecasting Systems......Page 109 7 Conclusion......Page 122 Appendixes......Page 128 Appendix A: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members......Page 130 Appendix B: Meetings and Speakers......Page 134