Forecasting Technology for Planning Decisions

## Environmental concern Financial cross-impact The forecasting model Interpreting the planning significance of a technology forecast 3 TowARDS SYSTEMATIC FoRECASTING Forecasting for all purposes The need for a systematic approach The comprehensive forecast and its four elements 1 Qualitative 2 Quantitative 3 Time 4 Probability Levels of a forecast: Disaggregation and re-assembly The deployment of the Delphi and Cross-impact techniques in systematic TF Concluding remarks on systematic technology forecasting 4 THE DEPLOYMENT AND PRACTICE OF TECHNOLOGY FoRECASTING Introduction Initial deployment of technology forecasting in an organisation The first cycle of TF activity-The company-wide approach General approach to the collection of scenarios-Stage lA Specific approach to collection of scenarios-Stage lB Preliminary screening of scenarios-Stage 2 Conduct of a Delphi study on surviving scenarios-Stage 3 Subsidiary value of TF Studies: Motivation Continued deployment of TF in an organisation 1 Procedures 2 Refinement of surviving forecasts 3 Use of other TF techniques 4 The use of TF at lower levels in an organisation 5 The collection of scenarios and signals of change Specific TF studies 1 Morphology 2 Time-series 3 Substitution forecasting 4 Disaggregation of high level technologies and modelling Contents vii 5 Broad technologies with multiple economic and social facets PART 2 TECHNIQUES OF SYSTEMATIC TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING 5 THE ELEMENTS OF A FoRECASTING SYSTEM 91 The four elements of a forecast and the techniques which contribute to them 91 Techniques for the generation of scenarios as the qualitative element Techniques for forecasting the quantitative element Techniques for forecasting the element of time 8 TIME FORECASTING METHODS Front Matter....Pages i-xvii Introduction....Pages 1-6 Front Matter....Pages 7-7 The Planner’s Need for Forecasts....Pages 9-33 Technological Growth Patterns and their Influence on Planning....Pages 34-52 Towards Systematic Forecasting....Pages 53-70 The Deployment and Practice of Technology Forecasting....Pages 71-87 Front Matter....Pages 89-89 The Elements of a Forecasting System....Pages 91-96 Qualitative Forecasting Methods....Pages 97-154 Quantitative Forecasting Methods....Pages 155-180 Time Forecasting Methods....Pages 181-218 Probability Forecasting Methods....Pages 219-257 Back Matter....Pages 259-263