Forecasting : methods and applications

Known from its last editions as the "Bible of Forecasting", the third edition of this authoritative text has adopted a new approach-one that is as new as the latest trends in the field: "Explaining the past is not adequate for predicting the future". In other words, accurate forecasting requires more than just the fitting of models to historical data. Inside, readers will find the latest techniques used by managers in business today, discover the importance of forecasting and learn how it's accomplished. And readers will develop the necessary skills to meet the increased demand for thoughtful and realistic forecasts. Since Accurate Forecasting Requires More Than Just Inserting Historical Data Into A Model, Forecasting: Methods And Applications, 3/e, Adopts A Managerial, Business Orientation. Integrated Throughout This Text Is The Innovative Idea That Explaining The Past Is Not Adequate For Predicting The Future.--book Jacket. Inside, You Will Find The Latest Techniques Used By Managers In Business Today, Discover The Importance Of Forecasting And Learn How It's Accomplished. And You'll Develop The Necessary Skills To Meet The Increased Demand For Thoughtful And Realistic Forecasts.--book Jacket. New Features In The Third Edition Include An Emphasis Placed On The Practical Uses Of Forecasting; All Data Sets Used In This Book Are Available On The Internet; Comprehensive Coverage Provided On Both Quantitative And Qualitative Forecasting Techniques; And Includes Many New Developments In Forecasting Methodology And Practice.--jacket. 1. The Forecasting Perspective -- 2. Basic Forecasting Tools -- 3. Time Series Decomposition -- 4. Exponential Smoothing Methods -- 5. Simple Regression -- 6. Multiple Regression -- 7. The Box-jenkins Methodology For Arima Models -- 8. Advanced Forecasting Models -- 9. Forecasting The Long-term -- 10. Judgmental Forecasting And Adjustments -- 11. The Use Of Forecasting Methods In Practice -- 12. Implementing Forecasting: Its Uses, Advantages, And Limitations -- App. I. Forecasting Resources -- App. Ii. Glossary Of Forecasting Terms -- App. Iii. Statistical Tables. Spyros Makridakis, Steven C. Wheelwright, Rob J. Hyndman. Includes Bibliographical References And Indexes. Frequently there is a time lag between awareness of an impending event or need and occurrence of that event.