Introduction to Reliability Engineering, 3rd Edition

Introduction to Reliability Engineering A complete revision of the classic text on reliability engineering, written by an expanded author team with increased industry perspective Introduction to Reliability Engineering provides a thorough and well-balanced overview of the fundamental aspects of reliability engineering and describes the role of probability and statistical analysis in predicting and evaluating reliability in a range of engineering applications. Covering both foundational theory and real-world practice, this classic textbook helps students of any engineering discipline understand key probability concepts, random variables and their use in reliability, Weibull analysis, system safety analysis, reliability and environmental stress testing, redundancy, failure interactions, and more. Extensively revised to meet the needs of today’s students, the Third Edition fully reflects current industrial practices and provides a wealth of new examples and problems that now require the use of statistical software for both simulation and analysis of data. A brand-new chapter examines Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) and the Reliability Testing chapter has been greatly expanded, while new and expanded sections cover topics such as applied probability, probability plotting with software, the Monte Carlo simulation, and reliability and safety risk. Throughout the text, increased emphasis is placed on the Weibull distribution and its use in reliability engineering. Presenting students with an interdisciplinary perspective on reliability engineering, this textbook: Presents a clear and accessible introduction to reliability engineering that assumes no prior background knowledge of statistics and probability Teaches students how to solve problems involving reliability data analysis using software including Minitab and Excel Features new and updated examples, exercises, and problems sets drawn from a variety of engineering fields Includes several useful appendices, worked examples, answers to selected exercises, and a companion website Introduction to Reliability Engineering, Third Edition remains the perfect textbook for both advanced undergraduate and graduate students in all areas of engineering and manufacturing technology. Cover Title Page Copyright Page Contents Chapter 1 Introduction 1.1 Reliability Defined 1.2 Performance, Cost, and Reliability 1.3 Quality, Reliability, and Safety Linkage 1.4 Quality, Reliability, and Safety Engineering Tasks 1.5 Preview Bibliography Chapter 2 Probability and Discrete Distributions 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Probability Concepts Relative Frequency Classical Subjective Sample space (S) = set of all possible outcomes Outcome (e) = an element of the sample space Event = A subset of outcomes Probability Axioms More Than Two Events Combinations and Permutations 2.3 Discrete Random Variables Properties of Discrete Variables The Binomial Distribution The Poisson Distribution Confidence Intervals Motivation for Confidence Intervals Introduction to Confidence Intervals Binomial Confidence Intervals Cumulative Sums of the Poisson Distribution (Thorndike Chart) Bibliography Advanced texts in Probability Exercises Chapter 3 The Exponential Distribution and Reliability Basics 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Reliability Characterization Basic Definitions The Bathtub Curve 3.3 Constant Failure Rate Model The Exponential Distribution Demand Failures Time Determinations 3.4 Time-Dependent Failure Rates 3.5 Component Failures and Failure Modes Failure Mode Rates Component Counts 3.6 Replacements 3.7 Redundancy Active and Standby Redundancy Active Parallel Standby Parallel Constant Failure Rate Models 3.8 Redundancy Limitations Common-Mode Failures Load Sharing Switching and Standby Failures Cold, Warm, and Hot Standby 3.9 Multiply Redundant Systems 1/N Active Redundancy 1/N Standby Redundancy m/N Active Redundancy 3.10 Redundancy Allocation High- and Low-level Redundancy Fail Safe and Fail to Danger Voting Systems 3.11 Redundancy in Complex Configurations Series–Parallel Configurations Linked Configurations Bibliography Exercises Redundancy Chapter 4 Continuous Distributions–Part 1 Normal and Related Continuous Distributions 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Properties of Continuous Random Variables Probability Distribution Functions Characteristics of a Probability Distribution Sample Statistics Transformations of Variables 4.3 Empirical Cumulative Distribution Function (Empirical CDF) 4.4 Uniform Distribution 4.5 Normal and Related Distributions The Normal Distribution Normal Distribution...... Cautions and Warnings!! Central Limit Theorem Central Limit Theorem in Practice The Lognormal Distribution Log Normal Distribution from a Physics of Failure Perspective 4.6 Confidence Intervals Point and Interval Estimates Estimate of the Mean 4.7 Normal and Lognormal Parameters Bibliography Chapter 5 Continuous Distributions – Part 2 Weibull and Extreme Value Distributions 5.1 Introduction The "Weakest Link" Theory from a Physics-of-Failure Point of View Uses of Weibull and Extreme Value Distributions Other Considerations Age Parameters and Sample Sizes Engineering Changes, Maintenance Plan Evaluation, and Risk Prediction Weibulls with Cusps or Curves System Weibulls No Failure Weibulls Small Sample Weibulls Summary 5.2 Statistics of the Weibull Distribution Weibull "Mathematics ́ ́ The Weibull Probability Plot Probability Plotting Points – Median Ranks How to Do a "Weibull Analysis ́ ́ Weibull Plots and Their Estimates of β, η The Three-Parameter Weibull Did Not Work, What Are My Choices? The Data has a "Dogleg" Bend or Cusp When Plotted on Weibull Paper Steep Weibull Slopes (ßs) May Hide Problems Low-Time Failures and Close Serial numbers – Batch Problems Maximum-Likelihood Estimates of β and η Weibayes Analysis Weibayes Background (You Do Not Necessarily Have Any Failure Times) Weibull Analysis with Failures Only and Unknown Times on the Unfailed Population Shifting Weibull Procedure Confidence Bounds and the Weibull Distribution Arbitrary Censored Data – Left-Censored, Right-Censored, and Interval Data The Weibull Distribution in a System of Independent Failure Modes 5.3 Extreme Value Distributions 5.4 Introduction to Risk Analysis Risk Analysis "Mathematics ́ ́ Bibliography Exercises Supplement 1: Weibull Derived from Weakest Link Theory Chapter 6 Reliability Testing 6.1 Introduction 6.2 Attribute Testing (Binomial Testing) The Classical Success Run Zero-Failure Attribute Tests Non-Zero-Failure Attribute Tests 6.3 Constant Failure Rate Estimates Censoring on the Right MTTF Estimates Confidence Intervals 6.4 Weibull Substantiation and Reliability Testing Zero-Failure Test Plans for Substantiation Testing Weibull Zero-Failure Test Plans for Reliability Testing Reexpression of a Reliability Goal to Determine η Designing the Test Plan Test Units with Censored Times (due to Julius Wang, Fiat-Chrysler) Total Test Time Why Not Simply Test to Failure? 6.5 How to Reduce Test Time Run (Simultaneously) More Test Samples Than You Intend to Fail Sudden Death Testing Sequential Testing 6.6 Normal and Lognormal Reliability Testing 6.7 Accelerated Life Testing Compressed-Time Testing Advanced-Stress Testing–Linear and Acceleration Models Linear Model Stress Testing Advanced-Stress Testing–Acceleration Models The Arrhenius Model The Inverse Power Law Model Other Acceleration Models 6.8 Reliability-Enhancement Procedures Reliability Growth Modeling and Testing Calculation of Reliability Growth Parameters Goodness-of-Fit Tests for Reliability Growth Models For Time-Terminated Testing For Failure-Terminated Testing For Grouped Data Environmental Stress Screening What "Screens" are used for ESS? Thermal Cycling Random Vibration Other Screens Highly Accelerated Life Tests10 Highly Accelerated-Stress Screening Bibliography Exercises Supplement 1: Tables for Weibull Zero-failure Substantiation testing Supplement 2: Tables For Weibull Zer-failure Substantiation testing using (t/Eta) Supplement 3: Critical Values for Cramer–Von Mises Goodness-of-Fit Test Supplement 4: Other Reliability Growth Models that have been Proposed and Studied (see AFWAL-TR-84-2024 for details) (a) Deterministic Models (b) Poisson Process Models (c) Markov Processes/Time Series Models Supplement 5: Chi-Square Table Chapter 7 Failure Modes and Effects Analysis – Design and Process 7.1 Introduction 7.2 Functional FMEA 7.3 Design FMEA Design FMEA Procedure 7.4 Process FMEA (PFMEA) 7.5 FMEA Summary Bibliography Exercises Supplement 1: Shortcut Tables for Stalled FMEA Teams Supplement 2: Future Changes in FMEA Approaches Supplement 3: DFMEA and PFMEA Forms Chapter 8 Loads, Capacity, and Reliability 8.1 Introduction 8.2 Reliability with a Single Loading Load Application Definitions 8.3 Reliability and Safety Factors Normal Distributions Lognormal Distributions Combined Distributions 8.4 Repetitive Loading Loading Variability Variable Capacity1 8.5 The Bathtub Curve–Reconsidered Single Failure Modes Combined Failure Modes Bibliography Exercises Supplement 1: The Dirac Delta Distribution Chapter 9 Maintained Systems 9.1 Introduction 9.2 Preventive Maintenance Idealized Maintenance Imperfect Maintenance Redundant Components 9.3 Corrective Maintenance Availability Maintainability 9.4 Repair: Revealed Failures Constant Repair Rates Constant Repair Times 9.5 Testing and Repair: Unrevealed Failures Idealized Periodic Tests Real Periodic Tests 9.6 System Availability Revealed Failures Unrevealed Failures Simultaneous Testing Staggered Testing Bibliography Exercises Chapter 10 Failure Interactions 10.1 Introduction 10.2 Markov Analysis Two Independent Components Load-Sharing Systems 10.3 Reliability With Standby Systems Idealized System Failures in the Standby State Switching Failures Primary System Repair 10.4 Multicomponent Systems Multicomponent Markov Formulations Combinations of Subsystems 10.5 Availability Standby Redundancy Shared Repair Crews Markov Availability–Advantages and Disadvantages The Advantages of Markov Availability Analysis The Disadvantages of Markov Availability Analysis Bibliography Exercises Chapter 11 System Safety Analysis 11.1 Introduction 11.2 Product and Equipment Hazards 11.3 Human Error Routine Operations Emergency Operations 11.4 Methods of Analysis Failure Modes, Effects, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) Criticality Event Trees 11.5 Fault Trees Fault-Tree Construction Nomenclature Fault Classification Primary, Secondary, and Command Faults Passive and Active Faults Fault Tree Examples Direct Evaluation of Fault Trees Qualitative Evaluation Top Down Bottom Up Logical Reduction Quantitative Evaluation Probability Relationships Primary-Failure Data Fault-Tree Evaluation by Cut Sets Qualitative Analysis Minimum Cut-Set Formulation Cut-Set Determination Cut-Set Interpretations Quantitative Analysis Top-Event Probability Importance Uncertainty 11.6 Reliability/Safety Risk Analysis Conclusion: Assuming Worst Case can be Misleading Another Approach: Monte Carlo Simulation Bibliography FMEA/FMECA Exercises Appendix A Useful Mathematical Relationships A.1 Integrals Definite Integrals Integration by Parts Derivative of an Integral A.2 Expansions Integer Series Binomial Expansion Geometric Progression Infinite Series A.3 Solution of First-order Linear Differential Equation Appendix B Binomial Failure Probability Charts Appendix C Ф(z): Standard Normal CDF Appendix D Nonparametric Methods and Probability Plotting D.1 Introduction D.2 Nonparametric Methods for Probability Plotting Boxplots and Histograms Boxplot Histogram Rank Statistics D.3 Parametric Methods Weibull Distribution Plotting Extreme-Value Distribution Plotting Lognormal Distribution Plotting D.4 Goodness of Fit Bibliography 3rd Ed Answers to Odd – Numbered Exercises Index EULA

Introduction to Reliability Engineering

A complete revision of the classic text on reliability engineering, written by an expanded author team with increased industry perspective

Introduction to Reliability Engineering provides a thorough and well-balanced overview of the fundamental aspects of reliability engineering and describes the role of probability and statistical analysis in predicting and evaluating reliability in a range of engineering applications. Covering both foundational theory and real-world practice, this classic textbook helps students of any engineering discipline understand key probability concepts, random variables and their use in reliability, Weibull analysis, system safety analysis, reliability and environmental stress testing, redundancy, failure interactions, and more.

Extensively revised to meet the needs of today's students, the Third Edition fully reflects current industrial practices and provides a wealth of new examples and problems that now require the use of statistical software for both simulation and analysis of data. A brand-new chapter examines Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) and the Reliability Testing chapter has been greatly expanded, while new and expanded sections cover topics such as applied probability, probability plotting with software, the Monte Carlo simulation, and reliability and safety risk. Throughout the text, increased emphasis is placed on the Weibull distribution and its use in reliability engineering. Presenting students with an interdisciplinary perspective on reliability engineering, this textbook:

• Presents a clear and accessible introduction to reliability engineering that assumes no prior background knowledge of statistics and probability
• Teaches students how to solve problems involving reliability data analysis using software including Minitab and Excel
• Features new and updated examples, exercises, and problems sets drawn from a variety of engineering fields
• Includes several useful appendices, worked examples, answers to selected exercises, and a companion website

Introduction to Reliability Engineering, Third Edition remains the perfect textbook for both advanced undergraduate and graduate students in all areas of engineering and manufacturing technology.

"The object of this text is to provide an elementary and reasonably self-contained overview of reliability engineering that is suitable for an upper level undergraduate or first year graduate course for students of any engineering discipline. In addition, the third edition has added material for the "beginning" Reliability Engineer who is in the field and transferred to the Reliability/Safety discipline. The materials reflect the inherently interdisciplinary character of reliability considerations and the central role played by probability and statistical analysis in presenting reliability principles and practices. The examples and exercises are drawn from a variety of engineering and some non-engineering fields. They can be understood, however, with only the knowledge from the physics, chemistry, and basic engineering courses contained in the first years of nearly all engineering curricula. Likewise, the reader is presumed to have completed only the standard mathematics sequence, through ordinary differential equations, required of most engineering students. No prior knowledge of probability or statistics is assumed; the development of the required concepts is contained within the text. For each appropriate example in this edition, the necessary steps for obtaining a solution are indicated using readily available software. EXCEL is augmented in many cases with the MINITAB®+. These two programs were chosen because they are widely available, and instructions for their use are also widely available. There are other Statistical software packages other than MINITAB that can do most of the analyses (SAS, SAS/JMP, RELIASOFT++, SUPERSMITH, and others) that are referenced in the 3rd edition. The problems and solutions are amenable to all these software packages as well as others"-- Provided by publisher

Using an interdisciplinary perspective, this outstanding book provides an introduction to the theory and practice of reliability engineering. This revised edition contains a number of improvements: new material on quality-related methodologies, inclusion of spreadsheet solutions for certain examples, a more detailed treatment which ties the load-capacity approach to reliability to failure rate methodology; a new section dealing with safety hazards of products and equipment.

Booknews

A text for a one-semester upper-level undergraduate or first- year graduate student in any branch of engineering. Reflecting the interdisciplinary nature of reliability engineering, draws examples from many branches of the field, but assumes no specialized knowledge or previous exposure to probability or statistics. Does require the standard physics and chemistry, lower-level engineering, and mathematics through ordinary differential equations. Each chapter is provided with a specific bibliography. Annotation c. Book News, Inc., Portland, OR (booknews.com)

In a very readable manner, this text provides an integrated introduction to the theory and practice of reliability engineering from an interdisciplinary viewpoint. Reliability concepts are presented in a careful self-contained manner and related to the issue of engineering practice--the setting of design criteria, the accumulation of test and field data, the determination of design margins, and maintenance procedures and the assessment of safety hazards. The reliability characteristics of a wide spectrum of engineering systems are compared and contrasted for failures ranging in consequence from inconvenience to grave threats to public safety. Presents reliability concepts rigorously, but care is taken in presenting the mathematics clearly for students who have had no courses in probability or statistics.