Guide to Computational Modelling for Decision Processes: Theory, Algorithms, Techniques and Applications (Simulation Foundations, Methods and Applications)

with Nato's Bombing Campaign Against Serbia Now Over, What Strategic, Long-range Plans Will The Alliance Employ To Restore Stability To The Region? As The Global Economy Continually Changes In Response To Worldwide Events, What Investment Strategies Will Firms Implement To Cope With Changing Markets? And How Can Major Pharmaceutical Companies Solve The Problem Of Having Newly-developed Products Abandoned Before They Can Even Be Launched On The Market? This Book Is Designed And Written To Give The Applied Statistician An Insight Into All These Areas Of Investigation. Insightful modelling of dynamic systems for better business strategy The business environment is constantly changing and organisations need the ability to rehearse alternative futures. By mimicking the interlocking operations of firms and industries, modelling serves as a ‘dry run'for testing ideas, anticipating consequences, avoiding strategic pitfalls and improving future performance. Strategic Modelling and Business Dynamics is an essential guide to credible models; helping you to understand modelling as a creative process for distilling and communicating those factors that drive business success and sustainability. Written by an internationally regarded authority, the book covers all stages of model building, from conceptual to analytical. The book demonstrates a range of in-depth practical examples that vividly illustrate important or puzzling dynamics in firm operations, strategy, public policy, and everyday life. This updated new edition also offers a rich Learners'website with models, articles and videos, as well as a separate Instructors'website resource, with lecture slides and other course materials (see Related Websites/Extra section below). Together the book and websites deliver a powerful package of blended learning materials that: Introduce the system dynamics approach of modelling strategic problems in business and society Include industry examples and public sector applications with interactive simulators and contemporary visual modelling software Provide the latest state-of-the-art thinking, concepts and techniques for systems modelling The comprehensive Learners'website features models, microworlds, journal articles and videos. Easy-to-use simulators enable readers to experience dynamic complexity in business and society. Like would-be CEOs, readers can re-design operations and then re-simulate in the quest for well-coordinated strategy and better performance. The simulators include a baffling hotel shower, a start-up low-cost airline, an international radio broadcaster, a diversifying tyre maker, commercial fisheries and the global oil industry.'Much more than an introduction, John Morecroft's Strategic Modelling and Business Dynamics uses interactive ‘mini-simulators and microworlds'to create an engaging and effective learning environment in which readers, whatever their background, can develop their intuition about complex dynamic systems.'John Sterman, Jay W. Forrester Professor of Management, MIT Sloan School of Management'Illustrated by examples from everyday life, business and policy, John Morecroft expertly demonstrates how systems thinking aided by system dynamics can improve our understanding of the world around us.'Stewart Robinson, Associate Dean Research, President of the Operational Research Society, Professor of Management Science, School of Business and Economics, Loughborough University Part I: Introduction to Modelling and Model EvaluationModel Building Val Lowndes, Stuart Berry, Marcello Trovati, and Amanda WhitbrookIntroduction to Cellular Automata in Simulation Val Lowndes, Adrian Bird, and Stuart BerryIntroduction to Mathematical Programming Val Lowndes and Stuart BerryHeuristic Techniques in Optimisation Val Lowndes and Stuart BerryIntroduction to the Use of Queueing Theory and Simulation Val Lowndes and Stuart BerryPart II: Case StudiesCase Studies: Using Heuristics Val Lowndes, Ovidiu Bagdasar, and Stuart BerryFurther Use of Heuristic Methods Val Lowndes, Stuart Berry, Chris Parkes, Ovidiu Bagdasar, and Nicolae PopoviciAir Traffic Controllers Planning: A Rostering Problem Richard ConnissSolving Multiple Objective Problems: Modelling Diet Problems Val Lowndes and Stuart BerryFuzzy Scheduling Applied to Small Manufacturing Firms Val LowndesThe Design and Optimisation of Surround Sound Decoders Using Heuristic Methods B. Wiggins, Stuart Berry, and Val LowndesSystem Dynamics Case Studies Chris Parkes, Stuart Berry, and John StubbsApplying Queueing Theory to the Design of a Traffic Light Controller James HardyCellular Automata and Agents in Simulations Kim Smith, Richard Hill, Stuart Berry, and Richard ConnissThree Big Data Case Studies Marcello Trovati and Andy BakerPart III: AppendicesAppendix A: Queueing Theory Stuart BerryAppendix B: Function Optimisation Techniques: Genetic Algorithms and Tabu Searches Val Lowndes and Mirko PaskotaAppendix C: What to Simulate to Evaluate Production Planning and Control Methods in Small Manufacturing Firms Stuart Berry and Val LowndesAppendix D: Defining Boolean and Fuzzy Logic Operators Val Lowndes, Marcello Trovati, and Stuart BerryAppendix E: Assessing the Reinstated Waverley Line Stuart Berry and John StubbsAppendix F: Matching Services with Users in Opportunistic Network Environments Stuart Berry Insightful modelling of dynamic systems for better business strategy The business environment is constantly changing and organisations need the ability to rehearse alternative futures. By mimicking the interlocking operations of firms and industries, modelling serves as a 'dry run' for testing ideas, anticipating consequences, avoiding strategic pitfalls and improving future performance. Strategic Modelling and Business Dynamics is an essential guide to credible models; helping you to understand modelling as a creative process for distilling and communicating those factors that drive business success and sustainability. Written by an internationally regarded authority, the book covers all stages of model building, from conceptual to analytical. The book demonstrates a range of in-depth practical examples that vividly illustrate important or puzzling dynamics in firm operations, strategy, public policy, and everyday life. This updated new edition also offers a rich Learners' website with models, articles and videos, as well as a separate Instructors' website resource, with lecture slides and other course materials (see Related Websites/Extra section below). Together the book and websites deliver a powerful package of blended learning materials that: Introduce the system dynamics approach of modelling strategic problems in business and society Include industry examples and public sector applications with interactive simulators and contemporary visual modelling software Provide the latest state-of-the-art thinking, concepts and techniques for systems modelling The comprehensive Learners' website features models, microworlds, journal articles and videos. Easy-to-use simulators enable readers to experience dynamic complexity in business and society. Like would-be CEOs, readers can re-design operations and then re-simulate in the quest for This interdisciplinary reference and guide provides an introduction to modelling methodologies and models which form the starting point for deriving efficient and effective solution techniques, and presents a series of case studies that demonstrate how heuristic and analytical approaches may be used to solve large and complex problems. Topics and features: Introduces the key modelling methods and tools, including heuristic and mathematical programming-based models, and queuing theory and simulation techniques Demonstrates the use of heuristic methods to not only solve complex decision-making problems, but also to derive a simpler solution technique Presents case studies on a broad range of applications that make use of techniques from genetic algorithms and fuzzy logic, tabu search, and queuing theory Reviews examples incorporating system dynamics modelling, cellular automata and agent-based simulations, and the use of big data Contains appendices covering queuing theory, function optimization techniques, Boolean and fuzzy logic, and transport modelling Describes simulation for the evaluation of production planning and control methods, and a model for matching services with users in opportunistic network environments Researchers, practitioners and students in computer science, engineering and business studies will find this work to be an invaluable and in-depth introduction to the use of simulation techniques in the analysis of large and complex problems, in addition to providing an exhaustive description of the theoretical framework and applications being developed to address such problems. This interdisciplinary reference and guide provides an introduction to modeling methodologies and models which form the starting point for deriving efficient and effective solution techniques, and presents a series of case studies that demonstrate how heuristic and analytical approaches may be used to solve large and complex problems. Topics and features: introduces the key modeling methods and tools, including heuristic and mathematical programming-based models, and queueing theory and simulation techniques; demonstrates the use of heuristic methods to not only solve complex decision-making problems, but also to derive a simpler solution technique; presents case studies on a broad range of applications that make use of techniques from genetic algorithms and fuzzy logic, tabu search, and queueing theory; reviews examples incorporating system dynamics modeling, cellular automata and agent-based simulations, and the use of big data; supplies expanded descriptions and examples in the appendices. Modelling and simulation of dynamic systems for better business strategy The performance of firms and industries over time rarely unfolds in the way management teams expect or intend. By modelling and simulating the relationships among the parts of an enterprise it is possible to anticipate potential problems, avoid strategic pitfalls and take steps to improve performance. This new updated second edition of Strategic Modelling and Business Dynamics is an essential guide to effective and insightful modelling for management; helping readers to understand, among myriad factors, those most r