Economic Forecasting

Economic Forecasting deals with macroeconomic forecasts from a global point of view. The focus is first on a large range of theories as well as empirical methods: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting. In addition, the book addresses the main issues surrounding the use of forecasts (accuracy, communication challenges) and their policy implications. A synthetic overview of economic data and forecasting institutions is also provided. [economic Forecasting] Provides A Comprehensive Overview Of Macroeconomic Forecasting. It Focuses First On A Large Range Of Theories As Well As Empirical Techniques: Business Cycle Analysis, Time Series Methods, Macroeconomic Models, Medium And Long-run Projections, Fiscal And Financial Forecasts, And Sectoral Forecasting. The Book Then Addresses The Main Issues Surrounding The Use Of Forecasts, Including Accuracy And Communication Challenges, As Well As Their Policy Implications. A Tour Of The Economic Data And Forecasting Institutions Is Also Provided.--book Cover. First Principles -- The Data -- Incoming News And Near-term Forecasting -- Time Series Methods -- Modelling Behaviour -- Macroeconomic Models -- Medium- And Long-run Projections -- Financial And Commodity Markets -- Budget Forecasts -- Sectoral Forecasting -- Accuracy -- Using The Forecasts -- Communication Challenges -- A Tour Of The Forecasting Institutions. Nicolas Carnot, Vincent Koen And Bruno Tissot. Includes Bibliographical References (p. 292-302) And Index. Cover......Page 1 Contents......Page 6 List of Figures......Page 9 List of Tables......Page 10 List of Boxes......Page 11 Foreword......Page 12 Acknowledgements......Page 13 Acronyms......Page 14 Introduction......Page 18 1 First Principles......Page 22 2 The Data......Page 36 3 Incoming News and Near-Term Forecasting......Page 72 4 Time Series Methods......Page 106 5 Modelling Behaviour......Page 124 6 Macroeconomic Models......Page 154 7 Medium- and Long-Run Projections......Page 176 8 Financial and Commodity Markets......Page 197 9 Budget Forecasts......Page 228 10 Sectoral Forecasting......Page 250 11 Accuracy......Page 256 12 Using the Forecasts......Page 272 13 Communication Challenges......Page 286 14 A Tour of the Forecasting Institutions......Page 296 Epilogue......Page 312 Bibliography......Page 313 Index......Page 324 This book provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting. It focuses first on a wide range of theories as well as empirical techniques: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium- and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting. The book then addresses the main issues surrounding the use of forecasts, including accuracy and communication challenges, as well as their policy implications. A tour of the economic data and forecasting institutions is also provided. Economic Forecasting provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting. The focus is first on a wide range of theories as well as empirical methods: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting. In addition, the book addresses the main issues surrounding the use of forecasts (accuracy, communication challenges) and their policy implications. A tour of the economic data and forecasting institutions is also provided.